Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FORTH prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-11-16 1.851984 1.934849 2.022275 2.121908 2.232975 2.353791 2.496285
2025-11-23 1.750340 1.856560 1.972570 2.110055 2.270455 2.454237 2.684746
2025-11-30 1.691702 1.814659 1.952507 2.120958 2.324931 2.569285 2.893430
2025-12-07 1.610958 1.740046 1.887143 2.070454 2.297926 2.578868 2.966847
2025-12-14 1.562796 1.699271 1.857258 2.057989 2.313335 2.638899 3.108627
2025-12-21 1.516791 1.657985 1.823516 2.037184 2.314678 2.678293 3.223903
2025-12-28 1.497338 1.646895 1.824873 2.059021 2.370966 2.794159 3.463062
2026-01-04 1.485245 1.643613 1.834904 2.091473 2.442484 2.936815 3.765750
2026-01-11 1.457442 1.619535 1.817324 2.086185 2.460994 3.003468 3.955427
2026-01-18 1.436192 1.602563 1.807663 2.090309 2.492133 3.090977 4.196789
2026-01-25 1.399141 1.564426 1.769226 2.053404 2.461452 3.078884 4.250778
2026-02-01 1.376348 1.543541 1.752249 2.044793 2.471140 3.131314 4.439536
2026-02-08 1.353414 1.522520 1.735257 2.036636 2.482874 3.191466 4.666403
2026-02-15 1.331118 1.501549 1.717433 2.026210 2.490060 3.244137 4.891045
2026-02-22 1.318303 1.492260 1.714551 2.036424 2.529167 3.355849 5.288510
2026-03-01 1.284971 1.455451 1.673646 1.990305 2.476772 3.297810 5.243176
2026-03-08 1.266224 1.437217 1.657232 1.978947 2.479038 3.340335 5.478868
2026-03-15 1.245599 1.416013 1.636155 1.959889 2.467647 3.355956 5.646275
2026-03-22 1.240090 1.414478 1.641688 1.979966 2.521117 3.501917 6.269946
2026-03-29 1.238189 1.417565 1.653517 2.009741 2.592729 3.694975 7.200483
2026-04-05 1.224638 1.404742 1.642825 2.004904 2.604701 3.765355 7.731974
2026-04-12 1.214556 1.396309 1.637972 2.008689 2.631790 3.872409 8.538832
2026-04-19 1.192575 1.371422 1.609393 1.974842 2.590217 3.819937 8.505670